Hurricane Lee, currently taking a northwestward route in the vast Atlantic Ocean, is causing significant concerns for the U.S. East Coast. As of 1200 UTC, 12 September 2023, this major hurricane, boasting an intensity of 100 kt, has garnered notable attention from meteorologists worldwide due to its unpredictable path, specifically between the forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the American model (GFS).
Given the storm’s potential impact and intensity, it is paramount for residents to stay abreast with the latest information, understand the differences between forecasting models, and prepare accordingly.
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Summary of ecmwf hurricane lee
| Date | Model | Forecasted Path |
|---|---|---|
| 12 September 2023 | ECMWF | Near the Jersey Shore |
| 12 September 2023 | GFS | Scraping Cape Cod |
| Potential Impact | Heavy rain, strong winds, storm surge | |
| Major Concerns | Flooding and power outages |
Hurricane Lee’s Current Status
Hurricane Lee, as of this writing, stands powerfully at 100 kt intensity. Situated in the North Atlantic basin at 24.1°N and 65.7°W, it poses a significant threat, especially to the U.S. East Coast.
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Its current trajectory sees it churning northwestward, affecting vast sections of the western Atlantic.
ECMWF’s Role in Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
The ECMWF is renowned for its precise weather forecasts. They offer a plethora of graphical products dedicated to the monitoring of tropical cyclones, hurricanes like Lee included.
These resources are invaluable for meteorologists, helping them predict and track the storm’s potential movements and intensities.
Lee’s Predicted Path
Forecasts suggest a looming northward turn for Hurricane Lee. The ECMWF model indicates that by September 18, Lee could be near the Jersey Shore. Contrarily, the GFS model forecasts a trajectory scraping Cape Cod before veering towards the Canadian Maritimes.
This divergence in predictions underscores the inherent uncertainty in storm tracking.
Impact on East Coast
Lee’s potential fury could unleash torrential rains, powerful winds, and consequential storm surges on the East Coast. The heightened risk of flooding and power outages is particularly alarming for meteorologists.
Given the storm’s unpredictable nature, residents are urged to remain vigilant and prepared.
European ECMWF Forecast Model
The recent deterministic ECMWF forecast showcases Hurricane Lee advancing towards the Jersey Shore, with New York City being in proximity to the storm’s eye. Such a trajectory could spell significant upheaval for the region.
Lee’s Strength and Threat
Currently classified as a major hurricane, Lee has the latent capability to ascend to Category 4 status soon. If this transpires, U.S. and Canadian shores will face formidable challenges.
Tracking Hurricane Lee
Spaghetti models, collections of individual forecasts, offer insights into Hurricane Lee’s possible paths. These models grant meteorologists a comprehensive understanding of the storm’s likely trajectory.
Comparison with American Model (GFS)
Both the ECMWF and GFS are esteemed forecasting entities. However, their predictions occasionally diverge. In Hurricane Lee’s context, ECMWF suggests a closer trajectory to the U.S. East Coast compared to the GFS.
For precise storm tracking, considering insights from both models is indispensable.
Conclusion
Hurricane Lee, with its current intensity and unpredictable path, mandates keen attention, especially from those residing on the U.S. East Coast. Continuous monitoring of both the ECMWF and GFS models is vital to discern the storm’s potential impacts and movements accurately.
FAQs:
What is Hurricane Lee’s current status?
Hurricane Lee is a major storm with 100 kt intensity, located in the North Atlantic.
How do ECMWF and GFS models differ in their predictions?
While the ECMWF predicts Lee approaching the Jersey Shore by September 18, the GFS sees it scraping Cape Cod before heading to the Canadian Maritimes.
Why is Hurricane Lee of significant concern to the East Coast?
Its potential to bring heavy rain, powerful winds, and storm surges, paired with threats of flooding and power outages, make it a significant concern.
How can residents prepare for Hurricane Lee?
By monitoring updates, having an evacuation plan, preparing a disaster kit, and securing their homes.
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